The rental market is normalizing, but “normal” still depends on where you live

After years of volatility, the U.S. rental market is settling into something closer to equilibrium. Nationally, rent growth has slowed to near zero, vacancy has risen, and the intense competition of the pandemic era has eased. But normalization does not mean uniform relief, and it certainly does not mean the rental market has turned easy.

As of late 2025, the national median asking rent is roughly $1,980, according to Apartment List, down about 1 percent year over year. Zillow reports similarly muted conditions, with national rent growth flat to slightly positive depending on property type. These shifts are modest, but they mark a clear departure from the double digit growth seen just a few years ago.

National averages, however, hide sharp regional differences.

A market of micro cycles

In several high supply Sun Belt metros, including Austin, Phoenix, and parts of Florida, rents have declined between 3 and 6 percent year over year. These declines are largely driven by a surge of multifamily deliveries that began construction during the height of the pandemic boom. Vacancy rates in these markets have climbed above 8 percent, forcing landlords to rely more heavily on concessions and flexible lease terms.

That same regional split is visible in renter behavior. RentSpree application data shows while rental listings in constrained coastal markets attract more than one applicant on average, Sun Belt markets are seeing fewer renters than listings.

Many supply-constrained markets remain tight. In New York, Los Angeles, and parts of the Northeast, rents are flat to modestly higher year over year, and vacancy remains below pre-pandemic averages. Zillow data also shows that single-family rental growth continues to outperform multifamily in many suburban and exurban markets, where affordability pressures keep demand elevated. 

The takeaway is simple. The rental market is no longer moving as one.

Demand has shifted, not disappeared

Slowing rent growth is not the result of collapsing demand. The U.S. is home to more than 44 million renter households, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and homeownership affordability remains strained. With mortgage rates still above 6 percent and home prices elevated, many households are staying in rentals longer even as they gain more choice in certain metros.

What has changed is pricing power.

Landlords can no longer rely on market momentum alone to drive increases. Performance is increasingly tied to asset level execution, including renewal strategies, marketing efficiency, and resident experience. In markets with rising vacancy, retention has become just as important as lease up.

What normalization really means

For renters, normalization means more options and fewer bidding wars in some markets, but not a return to pre-pandemic affordability. For agents, it means rentals are no longer a secondary story. As for sale inventory remains constrained, rental housing continues to absorb a growing share of household demand.

The rental market is not weakening. It is maturing. Conditions vary widely by region, growth is no longer automatic, and success increasingly depends on understanding local fundamentals rather than national headlines.

Michael Lucarelli is the CEO of RentSpree.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners. To contact the editor responsible for this piece: zeb@hwmedia.com.