Florida Remains the Riskiest Market for Future Home Price Declines

South Florida's luxury real estate market thrived in 2025, posting the second-highest number of $10 million-plus home sales in the region's history.

However, mounting pressures—including underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and persistent unemployment concerns—have placed several Florida housing markets among those most vulnerable to future price declines.

Of the 50 highest-risk markets, 12 were in Florida, nine in California, and five each in Illinois and New Jersey, according to the first-quarter housing risk report from real estate analytics firm ATTOM.

The riskiest housing market in the nation is Florida's Charlotte County, which includes Punta Gorda, the report found. Risk was determined by a combination of affordability relative to local incomes, the proportion of seriously underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and county unemployment rates.

“While home prices have eased slightly from last summer’s record highs, affordability remains a challenge in much of the country,” says Rob Barber, CEO of Attom. “The greatest risk remains in counties where unemployment rates are above 5% and homes are being foreclosed at greater rates.”

California counties top the list of the least affordable

Nationally, homebuyers on average could expect to spend 30% of their income on home expenses, the ATTOM report found.

In certain counties, housing costs were substantially higher, surpassing what a typical worker could afford even by allocating 88% or more of their annual income.

Four of the top five counties where home expenses consumed the biggest percentage of the typical resident’s annual wages were in California, where the median listing price is $749,450.

In Kings County, NY, home expenses consumed 109% of the typical resident’s annual wages, followed by Santa Cruz County, CA (97%), Marin County, CA (91%), San Luis Obispo County, CA (90%), and Orange County, CA (88%).

Underwater mortgages and foreclosures

Nationally, just 3.2% of homes were considered seriously underwater, meaning the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the properties was at least 25% more than the properties’ estimated market values.

But in Louisiana, that rate was much higher. In fact, 8 of the top 10 counties with the highest rates of seriously underwater homes were all in the Bayou State.

The top five were Ouachita Parish (17.4%), Calcasieu Parish (17.1%), Tangipahoa Parish (15%), Ascension Parish (14.5%), and Rapides Parish (13.2%)—all in Louisiana.

One out of every 1,211 homes nationwide was in the process of foreclosure in the first quarter of 2026, according to ATTOM.

Texas had two counties in the top five, with Liberty County, TX, topping the list with 1 in 55 homes in the process of foreclosure.

The other top foreclosure counties were Baltimore City, MD (1 in 294 homes), Dorchester County, SC (1 in 352 homes), Kaufman County, TX (1 in 361 homes), and Pueblo County, CO (1 in 368 homes).

Highest unemployment rates

The national unemployment rate was 4.4% in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

However, many places were hit much harder.

Among the 580 counties in ATTOM’s analysis, 4 of the 5 counties with the highest unemployment rates were in California.

They include Imperial County, CA (17.6%), Yuma County, AZ (11.7%), Tulare County, CA (11.5%), Merced County, CA (10.9%), and Monterey County, CA (10.8%).

Safest housing markets

Meanwhile, the report names Vermont's Chittenden County as the safest housing market in the nation.

Chittenden County is the home of Burlington, Vermont's largest city.

Rounding out the top five safest housing markets were Rutherford County, TN, Arlington County, VA, Tippecanoe County, IN, and Cumberland County, ME.

These counties were not notably more affordable than others, according to the ATTOM report, but they benefited from some of the lowest unemployment and best foreclosure rates in the country, along with low shares of underwater mortgages.